Forecast lock

Use a forecast lock to keep the forecast for the coming days or weeks from changing, so the schedules and reports you build on it stay stable. Assembled recalculates forecasts automatically, so without a lock, a forecast keeps updating until its date arrives, even after you’ve adjusted it.

A forecast lock isn’t a setting you can change in Assembled. To set one up, contact our team.

How forecasts update

• Once you save an adjustment on Forecast > Manage forecasts, it applies everywhere the forecast is used, including the Staffing timeline and Report > Support volume. It replaces the base forecast, the forecast before adjustments, for those intervals.
• The base forecast underneath your adjustment can still change. Forecasts are regenerated every night, and, by default, each time you save adjustments, outliers, or totals.
• Each time the base forecast is regenerated, your adjustment is applied again on top of the new base. The final forecast can shift even though the adjustment itself hasn’t changed.

Keep in mind: Outliers change the base forecast too. Marking an interval as an outlier leaves its volume out of the history the model learns from, which changes the base that your adjustments sit on. See Forecast outliers and adjustments.

How a forecast lock works

A forecast lock stops the nightly regeneration for a number of days ahead, so the forecast for those days stays as it is.

• A lock applies to all forecasts in your company.
• It covers a window measured in days from the end of today. See How the lock window moves.
• It stops only the automatic nightly regeneration.

Important: A lock doesn’t block changes you make yourself. New adjustments, outliers, or totals for locked dates, or a different current model, still regenerate and replace the locked forecast for those dates.

How the lock window moves

A forecast lock is a rolling window that starts from today, not a fixed date range. The window keeps the same length, but the dates it covers move forward each day.

For example: with a 30-day lock, on March 1 the lock covers March 2 to March 31. On March 15 it covers March 16 to April 14. Dates more than 30 days ahead keep updating every night until they come within the window.

Choose a lock length

A longer lock gives you more stability, and a shorter one keeps the forecast more accurate. Which suits you depends on your forecast model and on how you plan.

• With a rolling-average model, such as a 4-week average, dates far into a long lock are based on data that’s months old by the time they arrive. They don’t pick up newer trends or seasonal changes, so the further out you go, the more the forecast can drift from what actually happens.
• A shorter lock, such as 4 to 6 weeks, usually balances stability and accuracy well for models like this.
• A longer lock, such as a full quarter, favors stability. It’s a reasonable choice if your team tracks and adjusts volume by hand and doesn’t need the model to pick up new trends during the locked period.

To see how accurate each model would have been with a lock, use Simulate forecast lock on the Review tab. See Manage forecasts.

To set up a lock or change its length, contact our team with the number of days you want locked. The lock must be shorter than your forecast window, which you can see in Configure > Additional settings under How far ahead forecasts are generated. See Forecast models.

When you contact our team, say which trade-off you prefer, and we’ll go through the options for your model before setting the lock.

Check that your adjustments are in place

1. Go to Forecast > Manage forecasts and select the Adjust tab.
2. Choose the Channel and Queue.
3. Choose a date range that includes the adjusted dates.
4. In Edit outliers, adjustments, and totals, select the Adjustments tab.

Each adjustment in the date range has a card, and the chart shades the adjusted periods. If an adjustment is listed, it’s applied to the current forecast.